The Oscars: Where There Is Room For More Than One Hysterical Queen
A Breakdown of the Academy Award nominations and Assessment of What's Winning What
By J.T. Kolness
See what I did there? It's a reference to the "hysterical queen" line in Bohemian Rhapsody and a reference to Olivia Colman in The Favourite. It literally took me five whole minutes to come up with that headline and if you don't like it, piss off.
Without getting too ahead of myself, I'm just gonna go down the list category by category, offer my thoughts, and prognosticate at this point what's got the best chance at taking home that gold naked man. I won't be including the shorts on this list because typically when making my winner predictions, I usually just look up pundit predictions the night before the ceremony. I have no idea what any of these are except for Bao. Wasn't Bao great? Bao wins. Moving along...
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Capernaum (Lebanom)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
We all know this is going to ROMA but just to give a shoutout to other films, it was surprising to see Burning not make this list as it was a top critic's pick and made some decent impressions this awards season with Steven Yeun earning some under-the-rader Supporting Actor buzz. Cold War (especially with its other nominations) would easily be the one to beat if Roma weren't in the equation, and could pull an underdog surprise if the Academy feels it wants to spread love to Cold War here and give Roma Best Picture. Shoplifters was the biggest box office hit of the bunch (and the best reviewed on Rotten Tomatoes), though, so it can take pride in that honor. Never Look Away shockingly managed another nomination but that film and Capernaum are just lucky to be here as neither really are critical darlings (Capernaum by some criticized for being too depressing and Never Look Away criticized for being too damn long).
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG
It's no secret this category is always baffling, because this branch can be completely ridiculous. Word on the street is that the Documentary branch doesn't always like biographic-docs and far prefer nominating world topics and educational pieces (you know, the boring stuff--just kidding, or am I?). That's why last year they excluded Jane and this year excluded Three Identical Strangers, and even worse, Won't You Be My Neighbor, which was thought to be a shoo-in to win. Because they did that stupid thing, we're gonna settle for RBG as our winner, given its popularity and its timely release and the firm political stances it takes for/against our current administration. That said, Free Solo is also a threat, as an inspiring and jaw-dropping tale of one person's perseverance to accomplish their dream. Also look out for an underdog winner in Minding the Gap. Hale County and Fathers just don't have the buzz to get those #1 votes and RBG just seems like a slam dunk. It's not my favorite in this category, it's a solid enough film, but it will appeal to the most voters as the obvious choice.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs - "When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings"
Black Panther - "All the Stars"
Mary Poppins Returns - "The Place Where The Lost Things Go"
RBG - "I'll Fight"
A Star Is Born - "Shallow"
A Star Is Born - "Shallow" is probably the biggest lock of the entire night, rightfully so. From the first trailer to A Star Is Born, it was clear this earworm was going to be the definitive movie anthem of the year. It will be Lady Gaga's first (and probably only) win and the film's sole win as well. And as deserving as it is, I have to say my favorite nomination of the morning actually came from "When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" which is a song I sing to myself nearly every day since I saw Buster Scruggs, a movie I, overall, didn't even love. But it's my absolute favorite aspect of the film and I'm thrilled I get to see Tim Blake Nelson sing this on stage. This is also the only category that I predicted 100% correctly so while I'm bummed "Suspirium" from Suspiria couldn't crack the list after making the shortlist, I'm not surprised.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Terence Blanchard- BlacKkKlansman
Ludwig Goransson - Black Panther
Nicholas Britell - If Beale Street Could Talk
Alexandre Desplat - Isle of Dogs
Marc Shaiman - Mary Poppins Returns
The Academy somehow believed First Man was not worthy enough of a score nomination, despite it winning previous precursors and being the frontrunner all season. But, while it's a disappointing omission, Justin Hurwitz already won his two years ago, and it makes this category more exciting. Because it's a free-for-all, I'm going to choose If Beale Street Could Talk as our winner (as it was the original frontrunner), although Black Panther is a tempting option as well (can you believe an MCU film is a threat for a Score Oscar win?). Third in line being Marc Shaiman, who could pick up a win here since his song isn't beating Lady Gaga. Blanchard's nomination is just a blessing in its own as it's the first time he's been recognized despite his decades-long career with Spike Lee. Isle of Dogs is an expected nomination, given the Academy's love for Desplat, but damn does it have a catchy beat.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Pre-Bohemian hype, I would have said First Man or A Star is Born is a shoo-in to take this, but the surprise love for Bohemian Rhapsody may give it the edge, and it helps that as a rock-concert film which blends on-set sound and real recordings, as well as ADR singing by Marc Martel. It even has the entire showcase sequence set at Live-Aid that is just an explosion of sound. Rhapsody could be in for a massive hurt of backlash with its Bryan Singer controversy beginning to (finally) make waves in the media, but that didn't stop it from getting a Best Picture nomination, and a sound award wouldn't be undeserving. Roma could steal this as well, given the Academy's incredible love for the film. There's a film that should be here though, and I'll bring it up in the next category of...
BEST SOUND EDITING
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
This is a toss-up, but I'll give it to what should honestly win both sound categories- First Man. First Man may be the most head scratching awards contender this year. What was poised to be a Best Picture threat just ended up being this year's Interstellar. But even Interstellar won a tech Oscar and I'm sure the Academy will throw a bone to the film's flashy, bombastic, claustrophic sounds. Roma could also surprise here as the sound work is the film's replacement for having no score, as could Black Panther. What's missing though, as I mentioned above... why not nominate Mission: Impossible- Fallout in any of these categories? The sound work in that film is extraordinary, the film was the best-reviewed and biggest-grossing entry in an entirely Oscar-less franchise. It's just bizzare. But of course, Bohemian Rhapsody's instrument noises were just too next-level for the Academy to ignore...
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Black Panther missed here (and deservedly so) which means the category opens up to a possible win for three different films. Avengers: Infinity War is the obvious choice, and will likely take it as it has the most visual effects and a mocap performance at its center, although First Man has brief, but phenomenal practical effects work, and could nab another courtesy "sorry for ignoring you all season" win. Christopher Robin is the surprise here certainly, but those stuffed animals were stunningly rendered and I'm glad it wasn't forgotten.
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BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Border
Mary, Queen of Scots
Vice
Considering Mary's team didn't even show up to the bakeoff to promote and do a Q&A for their work, the film still got in, which like Victoria & Abdul last year, proves this category is wildly unpredictable with its nominations. But once the nominations are announced, the winner is usually obvious. In this case, it's Vice. Border has been on the radar for a Makeup nomination and it pulled through, but Vice is the only prominent film on this list and its fantastic aging makeup representing characters throughout nearly four decades of time. Missing here surprisingly is Black Panther and not-surprisingly, but what would have been the most deserving, Suspiria.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary, Queen of Scots
While this category is usually nuts over glamourous period piece contenders, Mad Max: Fury Road proved there's love for original costumes in which nobody wears giant dresses. Sandy Powell could pick up a win for her work in The Favourite, but Ruth E. Carter (poised to be the first African-American woman to win in this category) phenomenally designed Black Panther's catalogue of unique culturally-inspired tribal wardrobes and helped give the film a look like no other blockbuster before it.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Roma or The Favourite could surprise here given both are period pieces that beautifully recreated their actual settings back to life, but this will be Black Panther's to lose. It's costume and production design was just a one-two visual punch that blessed our eyes this year and created a whole new cinematic world for audiences to explore.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born
Three foreign films made it into this category, which is nothing short of stunning, although in doing so, First Man was shockingly overlooked. While I wasn't a fan of the hand-held lens work as others were with that film, the IMAX imagery was undeniably spectacular. That said, this is Roma's hands down. Cuaron's first time as a cinematographer paid off big time and crafted some of the most gorgeous black and white imagery we've seen in some time. Never Look Away, I have to mention though, may be the most unexpected nomination this entire awards season. It wasn't on the radar whatsoever, so its inclusion is baffling.
BEST EDITING
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
So this may be the worst selected category out of all, in my humble opinion. No Roma, no First Man, and expectedly but still disappointingly, no American Animals. The Favourite is probably the strongest contender overall, with BlacKkKlansman second, although there are sequences in both that probably needed to be trimmed down. Green Book's editing is average, its inclusion only here due to its Best Picture status. Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice definitely have the flashiest editing... but both are so overly edited, they both caused their films to feel messily structured and slapped together. The most editing does not mean the best editing. It's about pace, precision, and emotional impact. Those two films just spewed out as much pomp and circumstance cutting-and-pasting as possible. That said, Vice has "the most" editing of them all, and the editing forms the style and tone of the film, so it wins.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
In June, this seemed like an easy race between Incredibles 2 and Isle of Dogs. Do we naturally give it to PIXAR or do we award Wes Anderson with his first Oscar. Then Spider-Man came along and unexpectedly blessed our eyes and ears and hearts. Seeing an animated Spider-Man film take a Best Animated Feature Oscar over PIXAR seems unbelievable on paper, but it proved to be the film that audiences cared about most, as well as the industry. Coming out at the end of the year, the perfect time to build steam, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse will come out on top easily.
So here's where I'm going to start talking more category to category. Oh yes, more words. Get your glasses ready.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmot & Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
Barry Jenkins - If Beale Street Could Talk
Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters - A Star Is Born
This was a category that seemed to have four locks and open fifth slot that could have went to literally anything. There was even a point where Black Panther seemed like the strongest possibility, which would have granted Ryan Coogler his first Oscar nomination, but alas he did not and he remains Oscar-nom-less even with his film in Best Picture. Leave No Trace should have cracked this spot easy, but the film sadly just couldn't make waves. Paddington 2 would have been an absolute dream and at least the British Academy acknowledged it there last year when the film opened in UK cinemas December of 2017.
But while The Ballad of Buster Scruggs struggled figuring out its placement as original or adapted, pushing it out of previous precursor nominations. But like Moonlight and Whiplash before it, it found its placement, and got in, filling out the category. Interesting, given the fact that this was previously written as a television series for Netflix rather than a film. That said, it clearly doesn't have a shot. Can You Ever Forgive Me? has sharp dialogue and brilliant character work, but it's lack of a Best Picture nomination means it doesn't have a chance here. Will the Academy award Barry Jenkins again? More than likely not for the same reasons as Can You Ever Forgive Me? and he's won here before so it's not a total loss. Maybe they use this as an opportunity to award Bradley Cooper somewhere for A Star Is Born?
But BlacKkKlansman scored a Picture, Director, Acting, Screenplay, and Editing nomination and it's the most consistently nominated film in multiple categories this entire awards season and a dark horse to win Best Picture. Spike Lee has waited decades for his first win and this is the perfect way to award him. It's the strongest pick in the category anyway, so I imagine, it will be a pretty smooth win.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara - The Favourite
Paul Schrader - First Reformed
Nick Vallelogna, Brian Currie & Peter Farelly - Green Book
Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Adam McKay - Vice
I suppose congratulations to Paul Schrader on his first nomination despite his recent head-spinning comments in the media, natural distain for the Academy, and general lack of enthusiasm amongst his own peers in the industry. But people really love the script to First Reformed and it managed to sneak in. Perhaps all the talk about it maybe not getting it helped it get in, but the snub of Bo Burnham stings. Eighth Grade's screenplay was magic and Burnham had made such a spectacularly charming impression amongst the industry. Green Book and Vice's inclusions here are obvious, given the direction of this Oscar race, despite my feelings on either. Far more deserving contenders here would have been Hereditary and Sorry to Bother You. Roma's screenplay nomination is expected, despite it's subdued approach to its story structure (regardless it still structured a film that was beautifully told and captured onscreen). But unfortunately for us stubborn film fanatics, Green Book might take this. But maybe not so much anymore.
Nick Vallelogna, son of the film's lead character Tony Lip, is one of the most annoyingly undeserving people to be picking up awards this entire Oscar season. Yes, a lot of the dialogue sizzled in Green Book, but I imagine that has more to do with the other two experienced writers that teamed to write Green Book, including director Peter Farelly, who probably enhanced the film's comedy. But Vallelogna has some new controversial anti-muslim baggage hitting the headlines that may prevent Green Book from going any further than one win in Supporting Actor (more on that later). If it wins here, it could take Picture, and cause many of us to shake our heads and take a hard shot of rum just to numb the pain.
But I imagine this is where The Favourite will pick up its sole win out of 10 nominations. Viciously entertaining, The Favourite's script, even with the wild production design and insane performanes, is the flashiest thing about the film. Yorgos Lanthimos has long been respected in the industry, and while he didn't write the film, awarding one of his films finally after Dogtooth and The Lobster earned nominations, would feel appropriate.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams - Vice
Marina de Tavira - Roma
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone - The Favourite
Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
Emily Blunt, Claire Foy, Margot Robbie, Nicole Kidman. These women battled and battled hard for that last slot in Supporting Actress. And that battle seemed it would be Claire Foy's to inevitably dominate, and yet, the Oscars pulled off a magic trick on us. Bestowing that fifth slot to a contender we never expected was one of the best surprises of all, and even better, it going to Marina de Tavira, whose wholesomely underrated performance in Roma may have been helped substantially by support from director Alfonso Cuaron, who reminded voters of his leading ladies' performances in his film with every speech he gave. She won't win but given she had zero precursor support, this is a win in it of itself.
The Favourite ladies are just too good together, it's hard to debate who comes out on top. While Screen Actors Guild may throw their love toward Rachel Weisz (Emma Stone won recently whereas Rachel hasn't won in over a decade). Amy Adams would feel like the frontrunner, given its her sixth nomination with no win, but there is little passion for her performance in Vice and this doesn't feel like the right role to bestow Adams her long-awaited Oscar. Maybe next year for Woman in the Window?
No, this is Regina King's to lose. Despite missing BAFTA and SAG, she typically wins the categories she's actually nominated for, including the Globe. Her inclusion backs her steam and for an actress that has worked so hard in this industry with little reward, this is her time.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliot - A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell - Vice
While the critics have showered Richard E. Grant so much love for his flavorful silver-tongue performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mahershala Ali has won all of the industry awards. He won before in this category, but it's a big role, a "winning"-type performance ("If I'm not black enough and I'm not white enough, then what am I?") and it may be Green Book's courtesy win of the night if it doesn't take Best Picture (as well as it also being a win in one major category to back a Best Picture win).
In terms of nominations, it's pleasant to see Sam Elliot get his first nomination after a decades-long career of character actor work, as well as Adam Driver, whose performance amongst this group is my personal favorite of the bunch, playing a very good guy undercover as a very bad guy. Driver is MVP of a terrific ensemble and this only does wonders to boost his star power beyond Star Wars. Sam Rockwell in Vice is the only head-scratcher here, giving a decent and funny George W. Bush impression, but not doing anything awards-worthy whatsoever. It's not even so much that his performance is subtle. He's playing the character as it's written, which in the context of the story is actually irrelevant. The love for Rockwell can only come about due to the Academy's immense love for Vice and afterglow from Rockwell's win last year for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
It's weird for a Sam Rockwell Oscar nomination to be my biggest complaint of awards season given he's always been an actor that I've been fascinated by and championed his long, overdue status as an actor that desperately deserved recognition. He got it last year in the form of an actual win, which was deserving even without his extraordinarily underrated career to back up his win in general. But here, they've just given him another Oscar nomination whose only noteworthy scene is featured in the trailer of him eating fried chicken and asking Cheney to be his Vice President. That's about as showy as the performance gets. That means that performance booted out the likes of Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy, who invested his heart and soul into a monumentally emotional tour de force for the young actor. This category has always seemed like "we have our small batch of 5-6 contenders and no one else is allowed" which is a shame for great supporting performances this year with Russell Hornsby in The Hate U Give, Alex Wolff in Hereditary, Hugh Grant in Paddington 2, Steven Yeun in Burning, Josh Hamilton in Eighth Grade, Bryan Tyree Henry in If Beale Street Could Talk, Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther, Daniel Kaluuya in Widows, and even Russell Crowe for Boy Erased. It wasn't a weak year for this category, but our actual nominees, and our eventual winner, seem to be the weakest for this category in years.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Yalitza Aparicio - Roma
Glenn Close - The Wife
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
All I can say is poor Emily Blunt. Perhaps the most versatile actress of her generation playing the role of a lifetime "practically perfect in every way" just couldn't crack a nomination (lead or supporting for A Quiet Place, where she had begun to build up steam). The fact that she has to wait another year after delivering awards-worthy turns in The Devil Wears Prada, The Young Victoria, Looper, The Girl on a Train, and her double-whammy career-best year with Mary Poppins Returns and A Quiet Place is incredibly disheartening. My guess is whatever she eventually does earn a nomination for in the future, it will translate to a win. The girl is so widely respected by her peers, its shocking she's still having to wait this long.
Melissa McCarthy is who I imagined may have fallen off this list, but her buzz held strong and even her Razzie-nominated work in The Happytime Murders didn't have any effect on her chances. That said, her second nomination is her reward and it proves she's still an A-list actress that is here to stay. Yes, Toni Collette for Hereditary deserved to be here, giving arguably one of top-tier best performances of the year in any category, but due to genre-bias, A24's weak campaigning this year, as well as a stacked category to begin with, her raw to-the-bone performance couldn't gain steam. Elsie Fischer would have also been an inspired nomination for Eighth Grade. Charlize Theron may have given the most underrated lead actress performance of the year in Tully, and the same goes with Nicole Kidman in Destroyer, Amandla Stenberg in The Hate U Give, and Natalie Portman in... (not Vox Lux, she's supporting there) Annihilation.
But it was Yalitza Aparicio who bagged that fifth slot due to the love bestowed upon her and her costar from her director and his peers. This is her first acting role and rarely does anyone get a chance for their big break to be in a film that may take Best Picture. Olivia Colman's hysterical turn as Queen Anne in The Favourite stands a fair shot to win, especially if she wins at BAFTA. But it's looking at the moment to be a battle between Lady Gaga and Glenn Close (her seventh nomination without a win). But Gaga has already lost many of her precursor battles to close, including the Globe which seemed sure to be hers. I've let my guard down on this category and am ready to embrace Glenn Close in The Wife as our winner. Regardless of if anyone's even seen The Wife, everyone's talking about her winning (ala Julianne Moore in Still Alice), so hence, she'll probably win.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Christian Bale - Vice
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
At the moment, the internet is probably telling you this is a battle between Rami Malek and Christian Bale and I'm here to tell you, it probably won't be a battle at all. Given the criticism towards Bohemian Rhapsody and how much the Academy loved Vice, backed up by Christian Bale's immensely lovable awards speeches for a transformative performance, this award I'm ready to call is going to Christian Bale for Vice. Here, he'll pick up his first win in Lead Actor and second win overall. Malek is great, but if he plays his cards right, he'll have other chances (although I almost said the same about Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything, a film written by Anthony McCarten, who wrote Bohemian Rhapsody, and he beat Michael Keaton in the Best Picture winner Birdman).
Bradley Cooper's chances to win seemed quite obvious at the start of the season, but he's been pushed to the wayside. Only SAG will tell if he's still got a shot, but I will say his miss in Director may have actually increased his shot to win here as there is no more "vote-splitting" on where to give him recognition for most. In my personal opinion, he gives the year's best performance, but if he's going to lose to anyone, I'm glad it's Bale.
Mortensen is lucky to be here, but that's all due to the strength Green Book has shown this awards season. Dafoe is incredibly lucky to be here, as it seemed like he had no shot whatsoever. In being here, he booted out the likes of Ethan Hawke (thought to be a dark-horse nominee) and John David Washington, who I predicted given the influence his father has in the industry. I would like to give a special shoutout though to Stephen James in If Beale Street Could Talk, who gave one of the most devastating and powerful performances in this category and was completely ignored all season long.
BEST DIRECTOR
Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Palekowski - Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Adam McKay - Vice
Spike Lee's nomination is his reward, his surprising first in this category despite how influential and prominent his career has been in the history of black cinema. Palekowski is the "passionate surprise" inclusion this year (ala Paul Thomas Anderson last year and Lenny Abrahamson in 2016). His Oscar-winning Ida was widely respected and that love carries over to a film the Academy embraced so much, it came close to being a Best Picture nominee (a possible second foreign film in Best Picure). But he's just lucky to be here. Lanthimos and McKay gave both of their films their signature flash, and thankfully excluding Peter Farelly for Green Book, we were blessed with the most "directory" director lineup we could have gotten this year. The only shocking miss being Bradley Cooper's tremendous reinterpretation of the classic Hollywood drama A Star Is Born. But as I said in Best Actor, his miss here may be a blessing if all works out. I'm sure Cooper would rather have a possible win than an eighth nomination and no chance beyond (although he may not get anything anyway).
We all know this is Alfonso Cuaron's. Clearly. This is his baby and he full-stop did the most personal and impressive directorial feat any filmmaker achieved all year. He's going to win his second. For a filmmaker that seemed at first like his beautiful work would never get recognized, like his buddy Guillermo Del Toro before him, he's finally transitioned into an Academy-darling.
BEST PICTURE
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
Let me just start off by saying this is a very underwhelming crop for a year with far more potential. Sometimes the best movies just don't get recognized, and this year was absolute proof of that. The biggest miss here being If Beale Street Could Talk, a film by Barry Jenkins whose film Moonlight won Best Picture two years ago. I'm not going to list any more that should be here otherwise we'll be here all day. Either make it ten or make it five, this eight-nine nominee business hasn't been working. It had promise early on, but it's only created more argument. If I had to guess it if there were five nominees, we'd knock it down to BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born, and Vice, with The Favourite nabbing a sole Director nomination. But The Favourite is also the most nominated film of the year, tied with Roma, so while it's nomination-chances in Best Picture were perhaps lower than Vice's, it's chances to win the Oscar over Vice may average out differently.
The ones that have zero shot though, and are just lucky to be nominated, are as follows: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Vice. Black Panther is the first superhero movie ever nominated, finally. It should have happened to better movies before, but this is a milestone regardless and at least it happened with a great movie that really magnified the significance of culture, family relations, politics, and tribalism all in a superhero package. Being the biggest domestic release of the year doesn't hurt either. Bohemian Rhapsody has taken too many hits in the media and by critics, especially with the new exposes hitting director Bryan Singer. It's inclusion in general sticks out like a sore thumb, despite the $800 million-worthy and Golden Globe-winning passion it ignited with certain movie fans. Vice just doesn't have the critical backing to be anything more than a nominee, not to mention, it's just too de"Vice"ive. Get it? I'm hysterical.
The Favourite could wind up being an underdog here if it proves strong with BAFTA, but it's also just too dark and absurd for many (although absurdity didn't hurt The Shape of Water or Birdman). A Star Is Born went into awards season as the frontrunner but just can't seem to get anything beyond its inevitable Best Original Song win. Cooper missing in Director doesn't help either, although tell that to Argo, whose Best Picture chances were solidified because it missed Director and voters had sympathy, but that case is a rarity.
This race is really between three films.
Green Book
Winner of the PGA, which predicts Best Picture quite often, and the Golden Globe, voters just don't seem to care about Green Book's controversies behind the scenes as well as from a story standpoint of accuracy. Missing Director was a big sign that the Academy may be starting to cool on Green Book, though, and we'll see if that pulls through.
BlacKkKlansman
The only film this year to be nominated for everything in every category it needs to, this very politically-timely film could be the surprise winner of the night. It's winning a Screenplay honor, which is all it needs to take a prize like Best Picture. I may not be predicting BlacKkKlansman to take it all the way, but it's a lingering thought that seems more likely every day.
but the Oscar, I imagine, will go to Roma.
Many believe its chances of winning Foreign Film are inevitable enough to exclude it winning "too much" in that they'll give it a win there and another film will take Best Picture. There's also the fact that it is foreign (which hasn't happened before) and that it is a streaming-service film (which hasn't even been nominated before) that will handicap its chances of taking it all the way. But it got 10 nominations, the most ever for a foreign film tied with Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. It even nabbed unexpected acting nominations. The Academy loves Cuaron and they love his movie. I actually believe, and have believed for quite some time, that its handicaps would actually be what helps it in the long run (being "the first" __ to win Best Picture). It has the best shot to win than any foreign film before it, but let's take that out of the equation. It's good enough on its own to win, and the major thing that will push it to the top... it's a love letter to Mexico in the midst of a current political era where there's real drama in the United States with the conflict of a long-lasting government shutdown surrounding the building of a border wall. Hollywood is fairly democratic (see their love for Vice, RBG, and BlacKkKlansman) and what better way than to honor their politics than a movie about the people of Mexico. Not only that, but Cuaron has worked harder than anyone to promote this film gala after gala after gala. And he's already winning Director, which usually backs a Best Picture win anyway. Voters are going to have Roma on their brains until the Oscars air, and the buzz of Roma winning has already taken flight. It's not a sure thing until it happens, but it's chances are better now than ever.
We're looking at a result tally of 4 wins for Roma, 3 wins for Vice, 2 wins for Beale Street and Black Panther, and one win each for The Wife, Green Book, The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman, Avengers: Infinity War, First Man, Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star is Born, RBG, and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.
That's my recap of the Oscar nominations and my predictions! I doubt these'll change at all. Comment below any of your predictions and thoughts on the race and I'll be happy to respond. In the meantime, everyone go see The Wife, because I haven't!
BEST SOUND EDITING
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
This is a toss-up, but I'll give it to what should honestly win both sound categories- First Man. First Man may be the most head scratching awards contender this year. What was poised to be a Best Picture threat just ended up being this year's Interstellar. But even Interstellar won a tech Oscar and I'm sure the Academy will throw a bone to the film's flashy, bombastic, claustrophic sounds. Roma could also surprise here as the sound work is the film's replacement for having no score, as could Black Panther. What's missing though, as I mentioned above... why not nominate Mission: Impossible- Fallout in any of these categories? The sound work in that film is extraordinary, the film was the best-reviewed and biggest-grossing entry in an entirely Oscar-less franchise. It's just bizzare. But of course, Bohemian Rhapsody's instrument noises were just too next-level for the Academy to ignore...
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Black Panther missed here (and deservedly so) which means the category opens up to a possible win for three different films. Avengers: Infinity War is the obvious choice, and will likely take it as it has the most visual effects and a mocap performance at its center, although First Man has brief, but phenomenal practical effects work, and could nab another courtesy "sorry for ignoring you all season" win. Christopher Robin is the surprise here certainly, but those stuffed animals were stunningly rendered and I'm glad it wasn't forgotten.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Border
Mary, Queen of Scots
Vice
Considering Mary's team didn't even show up to the bakeoff to promote and do a Q&A for their work, the film still got in, which like Victoria & Abdul last year, proves this category is wildly unpredictable with its nominations. But once the nominations are announced, the winner is usually obvious. In this case, it's Vice. Border has been on the radar for a Makeup nomination and it pulled through, but Vice is the only prominent film on this list and its fantastic aging makeup representing characters throughout nearly four decades of time. Missing here surprisingly is Black Panther and not-surprisingly, but what would have been the most deserving, Suspiria.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary, Queen of Scots
While this category is usually nuts over glamourous period piece contenders, Mad Max: Fury Road proved there's love for original costumes in which nobody wears giant dresses. Sandy Powell could pick up a win for her work in The Favourite, but Ruth E. Carter (poised to be the first African-American woman to win in this category) phenomenally designed Black Panther's catalogue of unique culturally-inspired tribal wardrobes and helped give the film a look like no other blockbuster before it.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Roma or The Favourite could surprise here given both are period pieces that beautifully recreated their actual settings back to life, but this will be Black Panther's to lose. It's costume and production design was just a one-two visual punch that blessed our eyes this year and created a whole new cinematic world for audiences to explore.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born
Three foreign films made it into this category, which is nothing short of stunning, although in doing so, First Man was shockingly overlooked. While I wasn't a fan of the hand-held lens work as others were with that film, the IMAX imagery was undeniably spectacular. That said, this is Roma's hands down. Cuaron's first time as a cinematographer paid off big time and crafted some of the most gorgeous black and white imagery we've seen in some time. Never Look Away, I have to mention though, may be the most unexpected nomination this entire awards season. It wasn't on the radar whatsoever, so its inclusion is baffling.
BEST EDITING
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
So this may be the worst selected category out of all, in my humble opinion. No Roma, no First Man, and expectedly but still disappointingly, no American Animals. The Favourite is probably the strongest contender overall, with BlacKkKlansman second, although there are sequences in both that probably needed to be trimmed down. Green Book's editing is average, its inclusion only here due to its Best Picture status. Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice definitely have the flashiest editing... but both are so overly edited, they both caused their films to feel messily structured and slapped together. The most editing does not mean the best editing. It's about pace, precision, and emotional impact. Those two films just spewed out as much pomp and circumstance cutting-and-pasting as possible. That said, Vice has "the most" editing of them all, and the editing forms the style and tone of the film, so it wins.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
In June, this seemed like an easy race between Incredibles 2 and Isle of Dogs. Do we naturally give it to PIXAR or do we award Wes Anderson with his first Oscar. Then Spider-Man came along and unexpectedly blessed our eyes and ears and hearts. Seeing an animated Spider-Man film take a Best Animated Feature Oscar over PIXAR seems unbelievable on paper, but it proved to be the film that audiences cared about most, as well as the industry. Coming out at the end of the year, the perfect time to build steam, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse will come out on top easily.
So here's where I'm going to start talking more category to category. Oh yes, more words. Get your glasses ready.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmot & Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
Barry Jenkins - If Beale Street Could Talk
Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters - A Star Is Born
This was a category that seemed to have four locks and open fifth slot that could have went to literally anything. There was even a point where Black Panther seemed like the strongest possibility, which would have granted Ryan Coogler his first Oscar nomination, but alas he did not and he remains Oscar-nom-less even with his film in Best Picture. Leave No Trace should have cracked this spot easy, but the film sadly just couldn't make waves. Paddington 2 would have been an absolute dream and at least the British Academy acknowledged it there last year when the film opened in UK cinemas December of 2017.
But while The Ballad of Buster Scruggs struggled figuring out its placement as original or adapted, pushing it out of previous precursor nominations. But like Moonlight and Whiplash before it, it found its placement, and got in, filling out the category. Interesting, given the fact that this was previously written as a television series for Netflix rather than a film. That said, it clearly doesn't have a shot. Can You Ever Forgive Me? has sharp dialogue and brilliant character work, but it's lack of a Best Picture nomination means it doesn't have a chance here. Will the Academy award Barry Jenkins again? More than likely not for the same reasons as Can You Ever Forgive Me? and he's won here before so it's not a total loss. Maybe they use this as an opportunity to award Bradley Cooper somewhere for A Star Is Born?
But BlacKkKlansman scored a Picture, Director, Acting, Screenplay, and Editing nomination and it's the most consistently nominated film in multiple categories this entire awards season and a dark horse to win Best Picture. Spike Lee has waited decades for his first win and this is the perfect way to award him. It's the strongest pick in the category anyway, so I imagine, it will be a pretty smooth win.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara - The Favourite
Paul Schrader - First Reformed
Nick Vallelogna, Brian Currie & Peter Farelly - Green Book
Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Adam McKay - Vice
I suppose congratulations to Paul Schrader on his first nomination despite his recent head-spinning comments in the media, natural distain for the Academy, and general lack of enthusiasm amongst his own peers in the industry. But people really love the script to First Reformed and it managed to sneak in. Perhaps all the talk about it maybe not getting it helped it get in, but the snub of Bo Burnham stings. Eighth Grade's screenplay was magic and Burnham had made such a spectacularly charming impression amongst the industry. Green Book and Vice's inclusions here are obvious, given the direction of this Oscar race, despite my feelings on either. Far more deserving contenders here would have been Hereditary and Sorry to Bother You. Roma's screenplay nomination is expected, despite it's subdued approach to its story structure (regardless it still structured a film that was beautifully told and captured onscreen). But unfortunately for us stubborn film fanatics, Green Book might take this. But maybe not so much anymore.
Nick Vallelogna, son of the film's lead character Tony Lip, is one of the most annoyingly undeserving people to be picking up awards this entire Oscar season. Yes, a lot of the dialogue sizzled in Green Book, but I imagine that has more to do with the other two experienced writers that teamed to write Green Book, including director Peter Farelly, who probably enhanced the film's comedy. But Vallelogna has some new controversial anti-muslim baggage hitting the headlines that may prevent Green Book from going any further than one win in Supporting Actor (more on that later). If it wins here, it could take Picture, and cause many of us to shake our heads and take a hard shot of rum just to numb the pain.
But I imagine this is where The Favourite will pick up its sole win out of 10 nominations. Viciously entertaining, The Favourite's script, even with the wild production design and insane performanes, is the flashiest thing about the film. Yorgos Lanthimos has long been respected in the industry, and while he didn't write the film, awarding one of his films finally after Dogtooth and The Lobster earned nominations, would feel appropriate.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams - Vice
Marina de Tavira - Roma
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone - The Favourite
Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
Emily Blunt, Claire Foy, Margot Robbie, Nicole Kidman. These women battled and battled hard for that last slot in Supporting Actress. And that battle seemed it would be Claire Foy's to inevitably dominate, and yet, the Oscars pulled off a magic trick on us. Bestowing that fifth slot to a contender we never expected was one of the best surprises of all, and even better, it going to Marina de Tavira, whose wholesomely underrated performance in Roma may have been helped substantially by support from director Alfonso Cuaron, who reminded voters of his leading ladies' performances in his film with every speech he gave. She won't win but given she had zero precursor support, this is a win in it of itself.
The Favourite ladies are just too good together, it's hard to debate who comes out on top. While Screen Actors Guild may throw their love toward Rachel Weisz (Emma Stone won recently whereas Rachel hasn't won in over a decade). Amy Adams would feel like the frontrunner, given its her sixth nomination with no win, but there is little passion for her performance in Vice and this doesn't feel like the right role to bestow Adams her long-awaited Oscar. Maybe next year for Woman in the Window?
No, this is Regina King's to lose. Despite missing BAFTA and SAG, she typically wins the categories she's actually nominated for, including the Globe. Her inclusion backs her steam and for an actress that has worked so hard in this industry with little reward, this is her time.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliot - A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell - Vice
While the critics have showered Richard E. Grant so much love for his flavorful silver-tongue performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mahershala Ali has won all of the industry awards. He won before in this category, but it's a big role, a "winning"-type performance ("If I'm not black enough and I'm not white enough, then what am I?") and it may be Green Book's courtesy win of the night if it doesn't take Best Picture (as well as it also being a win in one major category to back a Best Picture win).
In terms of nominations, it's pleasant to see Sam Elliot get his first nomination after a decades-long career of character actor work, as well as Adam Driver, whose performance amongst this group is my personal favorite of the bunch, playing a very good guy undercover as a very bad guy. Driver is MVP of a terrific ensemble and this only does wonders to boost his star power beyond Star Wars. Sam Rockwell in Vice is the only head-scratcher here, giving a decent and funny George W. Bush impression, but not doing anything awards-worthy whatsoever. It's not even so much that his performance is subtle. He's playing the character as it's written, which in the context of the story is actually irrelevant. The love for Rockwell can only come about due to the Academy's immense love for Vice and afterglow from Rockwell's win last year for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
It's weird for a Sam Rockwell Oscar nomination to be my biggest complaint of awards season given he's always been an actor that I've been fascinated by and championed his long, overdue status as an actor that desperately deserved recognition. He got it last year in the form of an actual win, which was deserving even without his extraordinarily underrated career to back up his win in general. But here, they've just given him another Oscar nomination whose only noteworthy scene is featured in the trailer of him eating fried chicken and asking Cheney to be his Vice President. That's about as showy as the performance gets. That means that performance booted out the likes of Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy, who invested his heart and soul into a monumentally emotional tour de force for the young actor. This category has always seemed like "we have our small batch of 5-6 contenders and no one else is allowed" which is a shame for great supporting performances this year with Russell Hornsby in The Hate U Give, Alex Wolff in Hereditary, Hugh Grant in Paddington 2, Steven Yeun in Burning, Josh Hamilton in Eighth Grade, Bryan Tyree Henry in If Beale Street Could Talk, Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther, Daniel Kaluuya in Widows, and even Russell Crowe for Boy Erased. It wasn't a weak year for this category, but our actual nominees, and our eventual winner, seem to be the weakest for this category in years.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Yalitza Aparicio - Roma
Glenn Close - The Wife
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
All I can say is poor Emily Blunt. Perhaps the most versatile actress of her generation playing the role of a lifetime "practically perfect in every way" just couldn't crack a nomination (lead or supporting for A Quiet Place, where she had begun to build up steam). The fact that she has to wait another year after delivering awards-worthy turns in The Devil Wears Prada, The Young Victoria, Looper, The Girl on a Train, and her double-whammy career-best year with Mary Poppins Returns and A Quiet Place is incredibly disheartening. My guess is whatever she eventually does earn a nomination for in the future, it will translate to a win. The girl is so widely respected by her peers, its shocking she's still having to wait this long.
Melissa McCarthy is who I imagined may have fallen off this list, but her buzz held strong and even her Razzie-nominated work in The Happytime Murders didn't have any effect on her chances. That said, her second nomination is her reward and it proves she's still an A-list actress that is here to stay. Yes, Toni Collette for Hereditary deserved to be here, giving arguably one of top-tier best performances of the year in any category, but due to genre-bias, A24's weak campaigning this year, as well as a stacked category to begin with, her raw to-the-bone performance couldn't gain steam. Elsie Fischer would have also been an inspired nomination for Eighth Grade. Charlize Theron may have given the most underrated lead actress performance of the year in Tully, and the same goes with Nicole Kidman in Destroyer, Amandla Stenberg in The Hate U Give, and Natalie Portman in... (not Vox Lux, she's supporting there) Annihilation.
But it was Yalitza Aparicio who bagged that fifth slot due to the love bestowed upon her and her costar from her director and his peers. This is her first acting role and rarely does anyone get a chance for their big break to be in a film that may take Best Picture. Olivia Colman's hysterical turn as Queen Anne in The Favourite stands a fair shot to win, especially if she wins at BAFTA. But it's looking at the moment to be a battle between Lady Gaga and Glenn Close (her seventh nomination without a win). But Gaga has already lost many of her precursor battles to close, including the Globe which seemed sure to be hers. I've let my guard down on this category and am ready to embrace Glenn Close in The Wife as our winner. Regardless of if anyone's even seen The Wife, everyone's talking about her winning (ala Julianne Moore in Still Alice), so hence, she'll probably win.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Christian Bale - Vice
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
At the moment, the internet is probably telling you this is a battle between Rami Malek and Christian Bale and I'm here to tell you, it probably won't be a battle at all. Given the criticism towards Bohemian Rhapsody and how much the Academy loved Vice, backed up by Christian Bale's immensely lovable awards speeches for a transformative performance, this award I'm ready to call is going to Christian Bale for Vice. Here, he'll pick up his first win in Lead Actor and second win overall. Malek is great, but if he plays his cards right, he'll have other chances (although I almost said the same about Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything, a film written by Anthony McCarten, who wrote Bohemian Rhapsody, and he beat Michael Keaton in the Best Picture winner Birdman).
Bradley Cooper's chances to win seemed quite obvious at the start of the season, but he's been pushed to the wayside. Only SAG will tell if he's still got a shot, but I will say his miss in Director may have actually increased his shot to win here as there is no more "vote-splitting" on where to give him recognition for most. In my personal opinion, he gives the year's best performance, but if he's going to lose to anyone, I'm glad it's Bale.
Mortensen is lucky to be here, but that's all due to the strength Green Book has shown this awards season. Dafoe is incredibly lucky to be here, as it seemed like he had no shot whatsoever. In being here, he booted out the likes of Ethan Hawke (thought to be a dark-horse nominee) and John David Washington, who I predicted given the influence his father has in the industry. I would like to give a special shoutout though to Stephen James in If Beale Street Could Talk, who gave one of the most devastating and powerful performances in this category and was completely ignored all season long.
BEST DIRECTOR
Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Palekowski - Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Adam McKay - Vice
Spike Lee's nomination is his reward, his surprising first in this category despite how influential and prominent his career has been in the history of black cinema. Palekowski is the "passionate surprise" inclusion this year (ala Paul Thomas Anderson last year and Lenny Abrahamson in 2016). His Oscar-winning Ida was widely respected and that love carries over to a film the Academy embraced so much, it came close to being a Best Picture nominee (a possible second foreign film in Best Picure). But he's just lucky to be here. Lanthimos and McKay gave both of their films their signature flash, and thankfully excluding Peter Farelly for Green Book, we were blessed with the most "directory" director lineup we could have gotten this year. The only shocking miss being Bradley Cooper's tremendous reinterpretation of the classic Hollywood drama A Star Is Born. But as I said in Best Actor, his miss here may be a blessing if all works out. I'm sure Cooper would rather have a possible win than an eighth nomination and no chance beyond (although he may not get anything anyway).
We all know this is Alfonso Cuaron's. Clearly. This is his baby and he full-stop did the most personal and impressive directorial feat any filmmaker achieved all year. He's going to win his second. For a filmmaker that seemed at first like his beautiful work would never get recognized, like his buddy Guillermo Del Toro before him, he's finally transitioned into an Academy-darling.
BEST PICTURE
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
Let me just start off by saying this is a very underwhelming crop for a year with far more potential. Sometimes the best movies just don't get recognized, and this year was absolute proof of that. The biggest miss here being If Beale Street Could Talk, a film by Barry Jenkins whose film Moonlight won Best Picture two years ago. I'm not going to list any more that should be here otherwise we'll be here all day. Either make it ten or make it five, this eight-nine nominee business hasn't been working. It had promise early on, but it's only created more argument. If I had to guess it if there were five nominees, we'd knock it down to BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born, and Vice, with The Favourite nabbing a sole Director nomination. But The Favourite is also the most nominated film of the year, tied with Roma, so while it's nomination-chances in Best Picture were perhaps lower than Vice's, it's chances to win the Oscar over Vice may average out differently.
The ones that have zero shot though, and are just lucky to be nominated, are as follows: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Vice. Black Panther is the first superhero movie ever nominated, finally. It should have happened to better movies before, but this is a milestone regardless and at least it happened with a great movie that really magnified the significance of culture, family relations, politics, and tribalism all in a superhero package. Being the biggest domestic release of the year doesn't hurt either. Bohemian Rhapsody has taken too many hits in the media and by critics, especially with the new exposes hitting director Bryan Singer. It's inclusion in general sticks out like a sore thumb, despite the $800 million-worthy and Golden Globe-winning passion it ignited with certain movie fans. Vice just doesn't have the critical backing to be anything more than a nominee, not to mention, it's just too de"Vice"ive. Get it? I'm hysterical.
The Favourite could wind up being an underdog here if it proves strong with BAFTA, but it's also just too dark and absurd for many (although absurdity didn't hurt The Shape of Water or Birdman). A Star Is Born went into awards season as the frontrunner but just can't seem to get anything beyond its inevitable Best Original Song win. Cooper missing in Director doesn't help either, although tell that to Argo, whose Best Picture chances were solidified because it missed Director and voters had sympathy, but that case is a rarity.
This race is really between three films.
Green Book
Winner of the PGA, which predicts Best Picture quite often, and the Golden Globe, voters just don't seem to care about Green Book's controversies behind the scenes as well as from a story standpoint of accuracy. Missing Director was a big sign that the Academy may be starting to cool on Green Book, though, and we'll see if that pulls through.
BlacKkKlansman
The only film this year to be nominated for everything in every category it needs to, this very politically-timely film could be the surprise winner of the night. It's winning a Screenplay honor, which is all it needs to take a prize like Best Picture. I may not be predicting BlacKkKlansman to take it all the way, but it's a lingering thought that seems more likely every day.
but the Oscar, I imagine, will go to Roma.
Many believe its chances of winning Foreign Film are inevitable enough to exclude it winning "too much" in that they'll give it a win there and another film will take Best Picture. There's also the fact that it is foreign (which hasn't happened before) and that it is a streaming-service film (which hasn't even been nominated before) that will handicap its chances of taking it all the way. But it got 10 nominations, the most ever for a foreign film tied with Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. It even nabbed unexpected acting nominations. The Academy loves Cuaron and they love his movie. I actually believe, and have believed for quite some time, that its handicaps would actually be what helps it in the long run (being "the first" __ to win Best Picture). It has the best shot to win than any foreign film before it, but let's take that out of the equation. It's good enough on its own to win, and the major thing that will push it to the top... it's a love letter to Mexico in the midst of a current political era where there's real drama in the United States with the conflict of a long-lasting government shutdown surrounding the building of a border wall. Hollywood is fairly democratic (see their love for Vice, RBG, and BlacKkKlansman) and what better way than to honor their politics than a movie about the people of Mexico. Not only that, but Cuaron has worked harder than anyone to promote this film gala after gala after gala. And he's already winning Director, which usually backs a Best Picture win anyway. Voters are going to have Roma on their brains until the Oscars air, and the buzz of Roma winning has already taken flight. It's not a sure thing until it happens, but it's chances are better now than ever.
We're looking at a result tally of 4 wins for Roma, 3 wins for Vice, 2 wins for Beale Street and Black Panther, and one win each for The Wife, Green Book, The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman, Avengers: Infinity War, First Man, Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star is Born, RBG, and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.
That's my recap of the Oscar nominations and my predictions! I doubt these'll change at all. Comment below any of your predictions and thoughts on the race and I'll be happy to respond. In the meantime, everyone go see The Wife, because I haven't!
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